s skippy the bush kangaroo: poll dancing

skippy the bush kangaroo

Monday, October 15, 2012

poll dancing

two nates, no waiting!

over @ the new republic, nate cohn sez obama had a slightly better weekend than the past week:

heading into the weekend, only yougov/economist and rand showed obama leading among likely voters. by this morning, those two methodologically distinct surveys were joined by four more traditional polls, including two surveys that showed romney leading late last week. in both instances, obama's gains exceeded a net-4 points over the last few days. perhaps most surprisingly, the abc/washington post poll showed obama gaining a point compared to their pre-debate survey, now holding a 49-46 lead. on the other hand, obama did not make any gains in gallup, even though the survey chopped off the initial few days following the first presidential debate. for democrats hoping for signs that romney's bounce was fading, the gallup numbers are a troubling sign. nonetheless, obama's leads in national surveys represented an improvement over last week.
but before you get too optimistic, nate silver over @ 538, pretty much says that anybody who isn't confused, is crazy:

there have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on election day itself. but i am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn’t know what he’s doing.
mr. silver points out that while many individual state polls give obama a slight advantage, national polling continues to either indicate a dead heat or a romney lead:

mr. romney, however, still held leads in two other tracking polls. the sunday edition of the rasmussen reports tracking poll put him up 2 percentage points, a 1-point gain from saturday, while he maintained a 2-point lead in the gallup national tracking poll of likely voters.

you should be able to see from this why the washington post’s poll is potentially important. with it, the case is clearer that mr. obama has recovered from his post-debate lows, although he has almost assuredly not made up all the ground he lost.
we'll see what happens if obama shows up for the townhall tomorrow.
posted by skippy at 11:15 AM |


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