s skippy the bush kangaroo: an ounce of bounce is worth a ton of won

skippy the bush kangaroo

Monday, September 10, 2012

an ounce of bounce is worth a ton of won

nate cohn @ the new republic makes a compelling case that obama's post-convention rise in the polls is a little more decisive than just a bounce:

in contests involving an incumbent president, the candidate with a higher share of the vote following his convention in gallup polling has won every election since 1964. we can go further: no modern candidate has won the presidency without taking a lead after his own convention. and there is a strong relationship between the incumbent’s share of the vote and their eventual finish in november.* to take a recent example, bush peaked at 50.4 percent in the realclearpolitics average after the rnc, and eventually won 50.7 percent of the vote. and it’s worth noting the largest errors involved races with incumbents who took the presidency due to assassination or impeachment (ford, johnson), and a year in which the polls systematically advantaged the incumbent (1996).
as nate silver (two nates, no waiting) extolls, it's too early to make that much out of this bounce. but nate (the first nate, the new republic nate) makes a compelling case.

if we were mitt, we'd be worried.
posted by skippy at 9:57 PM |


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