s skippy the bush kangaroo: is it obama's economy yet?

skippy the bush kangaroo



Friday, August 07, 2009

is it obama's economy yet?

a couple of weeks ago eric cantor, renown economist, announced that "6-months later, this is clearly president obama’s economy."

we'd like to hold him to it, because things seem like they are starting to look up.

today's unemployment figures were far below the expected 320,000 to 350,000, coming in @ 247,000. kansascity.com:

friday's unexpected drop in unemployment is great news for americans and the struggling u.s. economy. and for president barack obama.

for weeks critics have been pummeling the obama administration for underestimating just how bad unemployment would get during the current recession.

the figure was widely expected to hit 10 percent or higher in the coming months, before any kind of turnaround could be seen.

and yet this on friday from bloomberg:

the pace of u.s. job losses slowed more than forecast last month and the unemployment rate dropped for the first time since april 2008, the clearest signs yet that the worst recession since the great depression is easing. ... the jobless rate dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent.
now, personally, we would suggest not holding one's breath, as the recession is far from over, in our opinion. unemployment very well could hit double digits before we see the light of day, but these new numbers suggest things are not continuing downward. and, if you listen to dennis gartman, the recession is already over:

when economist dennis gartman told subscribers of his newsletter in the fall of 2007 that the u.s. was entering a recession, the dow was at 13,500, and the official government call wouldn't come for another full year.

now he's ahead of officials and forecasters again. according to gartman, the u.s. recession that started in december 2007 is done.

"we saw it happen two weeks ago -- it's over," he said in a recent interview.

other well-known economists and market watchers have recently been hinting at the same thing. nyu economics professor nouriel roubini, also known as "dr. doom" for his prescient predictions of the worldwide downturn, says the u.s. recession will end later this year. treasury secretary timothy geithner said last weekend that the recession is easing. and president obama told univision last week, "we maybe are beginning to see the end of the recession."

but gartman says the great recession ended in july.
of course, gartman, roubini, and all those economists have jobs, so it's easy for them to say that.

but things are defintately looking up.

addendum: apparently the stock market thinks so, too:

stocks rallied friday, with the dow and s&p 500 closing at the highest point in nine months, after the july jobs report showed the smallest number of job cuts in nearly a year, adding to recovery hopes.

the dow jones industrial average (indu) gained 114 points, or 1.2%, according to early tallies. the s&p 500 (spx) index rose 13 points, or 1.3%. the nasdaq composite (comp) added 27 points, or 1.4%.

all three indexes finished higher for the week.
the markets were driven higher by the good unemployment news:

"it was the best reading on non-farm payrolls since before lehman's collapse last september, which was the pivotal event that precipitated the crisis," said jeff kleintop, chief market strategist at lpl financial.

the report seemed to confirm other recent indications that the economy is stabilizing.

"leading indicators have priced in a recovery for a while, now lagging indicators like unemployment are too," he said.
posted by skippy at 6:48 PM |

7 Comments:

So the unemployment figures went down a little after everyone was expecting things to get worse.

Well, Obama. Don’t get too uppity.
You may have gotten a bit of good news lately but that doesn't make up for the fact that during your administration we witnessed....
* The collapse of Countrywide,Ameriquest, Indymac Bank
* Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
* A massive $700 billion emergency bailout TARP program
* Washington Mutual seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average caps its worst week ever with its highest volatility day ever recorded in its 112 year history
* Lehman Brothers collapses
* The US Federal Reserve lends $85 billion to American International Group (AIG) to avoid bankruptcy.
* The US government agrees to rescue Citigroup
* Economists start talking about a second great depression
* The collapse of….excuse me? hmmm….you sure…oh…

Ah, Excuse me….
That all took place under the Bush administration?!
…..Never mind.
commented by Blogger Hamster, 2:00 PM PDT  
lol!
commented by Blogger skippy, 4:25 PM PDT  
It's amazing how long it takes government "experts" to declare a recession having begun, when one considerers how quickly they declare it to be over.
commented by Blogger daveawayfromhome, 5:57 PM PDT  
The number of unemployed went up. The *rate* of unemployment went down, but that's being driven not by job creation, but by so many people have dropped out of the labor force.

But what condition does that leave us in after July compared to June? It leaves us with 247,000 less jobs.

Based on the way they changed the calculation in 1994 we can see this happen - more jobs get peeled away and yet the unemployment rate goes down. It happened a few times when Bush was President as well. Of course at that time, the news media took great pains to make sure we actually understood that LESS people were working. Headlines were something like: "Number unemployed rises though rate drops." But now that they have their guy in, headlines are more like: "Jobs rebound signals end to the recession."

We've actually peeled away jobs at twice the rate of the Great Depression. At this point (10 months after the first meltdown), using the old method of employed = yes/no. the unemployment rate back then was 8.9%. Today it is over 16%, using the same methodology.

Plain and simple, we are in worse shape now than a month ago. 247,000 more jobs peeled away. It's only because Obama is President that going to hell in a hand basket, but not quite as fast as a few months ago is somehow good news. If Bush had these numbers the whole world would be exploding.
commented by Anonymous Anonymous, 2:35 AM PDT  
Obama inherited this mess- he did not create it. They may as well have handed him a shovel at the inauguration- so he could have a proper tool to start digging us out of this smoldering ruins mess Bush left this country in.

At least the environment & health care are now ON the table. As they try to create jobs they are also including getting hybrid & alternative technologies as a part of the equation.

I can speak for my family.... as a direct result of some of these programs, my husband is now working again & just when our 15 year old car literally began to fall apart, the clunkers program saved the day.
I am now driving a vehicle that gets twice the mpg, and we both have jobs.

I know it did not work out that way for lots of people, but for us it has made a huge and significant difference. It has to start somewhere.
I am very grateful for the breaks we got.
Our bootstraps were getting worn out.

As for the Wall Street folly- they created their own demise- got greedy & sloppy.

parsep
commented by Blogger Fran, 11:22 AM PDT  
secretly i thing the right wing loves the fact obama is in power - so they can just shift the blame
commented by Blogger Distributorcap, 10:27 AM PDT  
But of course, Obama inherited the crisis. It would be rather silly to think that just because the global economy has not healed itself in 6 months, the fact that the economy needs a recovery the first place would have anything to do with him.

At the same time, he failed utterly to provide leadership in either domestic or global economic matters. And this is despite the fact that he had unprecedented political capital to do either, or both.
commented by Anonymous tamas, 2:34 PM PDT  

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