skippy the bush kangaroo: deep in the heat of texas

Saturday, February 23, 2008

deep in the heat of texas

this can't make hillary feel good: obama leading clinton in texas:

barack obama has a double digit lead over hillary clinton in texas, according to a statewide survey of 678 registered voters planning to vote in the march 4 democratic primary. the survey was conducted february 20 and 21 by decision analyst, a major national survey research firm. decision analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today obama would win 57% to 43% over clinton. the survey's margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 90% level of confidence…

“as the second most populous state, texas’ delegate count is large, and an obama win of the magnitude indicated by our survey would most likely propel obama to the democratic nomination,” according to jerry w. thomas, president/ceo of decision analyst. “it is still two weeks to the march 4 election, and many things can happen, but as of today, obama has a commanding lead.”

we're still not convinced that talking to 678 voters is the same as talking to all the democrats in the entire state of texas, but that kind of headline is probably making sen. clinton sorry she ever heard the words "mark penn."

Labels: clinton, democrats, hillary, obama, polls, prez campaign

posted by skippy at 11:19 AM |

2 Comments:

The devil is in the weighting of the various groups, not the size of the sample. The size is big enough to get a real read of the population, assuming it's random. This poll looks like an outlier to me--I haven't seen a Texas poll with Obama in the lead, much less by 14. Don't get me wrong--I'd like to see Obama win by that much or more, simply because it'll effectively end this campaign, and if I have to listen to another bogus attack like the plagiarism one, I may lose my damn mind. But I'd be wary of a poll that's this far outside the rest.

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